Megathread: Federal Reserve

So many things going on there:

  1. Who’s gonna get Chairman?
  2. Will Lisa Cook get fired? Did Kugler do the same as her?
  3. Which Reserve Bank presidents will keep their jobs after all is said and done?
  4. Will the US turn into a banana republic after the Fed starts cutting rates in 200 bps increments?

I’m sure I’m missing plenty, but would like to hear what others are thinking

My predictions are:

  1. Waller
  2. Yes and yes
  3. Goolsbee, Bostic, Daly, Williams, Collins, Kashkari, and Paulson are out.
  4. You jest, but we’re gonna see bond vigilantes reign in Trump once the Treasury starts raising money to fund the OBBB.
  1. Warsh
  2. Yes and no
  3. Everybody keeps their job
  4. Typical dem alarmism
  1. Betting markets are saying Hassett Fed Chair nominee | Trade on Kalshi
    Probably due to Waller not dissenting for a more aggressive rate cut
  2. Heard Kugler’s Husband had insider trading allegations
  3. Not Mary Daly
  4. Its been 25bps so far
1 Like
  1. I have my money on dark horse Steve Miran
  2. Wtf please explain
  3. God I hope Neel Kashkari gets cut
  4. I hope it causes the market to crash

Do you have any more details about Kugler’s husband? I haven’t seen anything about this.

Her husband violated the trading restrictions during FOMC blackout and that’s what prompted her to step down. What’s even more crazy is he didn’t even tell her about it after he did it and it only came up when she had to fill out her financial disclosures (which is alledgedly why she hasn’t filed her disclosure forms yet even though every other Fed governor has already done so). I heard she’s waiting till the last minute to file this sometime next year and hoping nobody is paying attention to her by then.

That’s wild. I don’t get why these ppl are so careless when they’re in such high profile positions. Sucks for her to have such an idiotic husband.

Wow. First i’m hearing about this. Any insight on why the admin didn’t make a media circus of this?

That’s terrifying. I don’t know why anyone would want to work for the executive branch these days. Some of my friends who were relatively low level political appointees wracked up $300k-$500k in legal expenses after the first Trump admin just to deal with the House oversight hearings.

Looks like I was dead wrong on most of this: Bessent lists five finalists for Fed chair job, and Trump says decision coming before the end of the year

Hassett is dominating the betting markets

https://kalshi.com/markets/kxfedchairnom/fed-chair-nominee/kxfedchairnom-29

Hell hath no fury like a Governor who was almost fired. That or she’s terrified of the Admin and is going to fall in line.

So admin has dirt on him?

Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic will retire when his current five-year term expires at the end of next February.

https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/atlanta-fed-president-bostic-to-retire-ahead-of-reappointment-process-e0cb2c2c?mod=e2fb&fbclid=IwZnRzaAOBjtRleHRuA2FlbQIxMQBzcnRjBmFwcF9pZAo2NjI4NTY4Mzc5AAEeB_sbZUw8Ssys-vYn2h3K3GwFm8ZJatinp6jWj4xgsu2a9pohk2h7yJmr2uA_aem_h9kEZudRuCQ-eVVD9EKKIA

He was known to have a lot of insider trading issues during the Biden administration. Shocked it took this long for him to get kicked out.

Wonder if he’s going to be the only president who steps down to avoid the 5 year review?

My guess is there are more. Garden variety corruption is super prevalent at the Fed from what I’ve been able to discern - mostly because the staff there don’t even view it as corruption. From my conversations, a lot of them seemed to be offended that people would question their trades in their personal account.

Do these reserve bank presidents or senior staff need to go through PPO?

No because they are technically not part of the executive branch. The reserve banks are technically not even governement.

Former Fed Gov. Adriana Kugler violated trading rules while at central bank: ethics report

Pathetic she probably didn’t even make any money.